AUM closed FY26 (1 Oct 25 - 30 Sep 26) on £20.0bn, below our previous forecast of £22.8bn. Q4 saw relatively heavy outflows of £2.4bn with markets responsible for a £0.9bn decline in AUM.
Impax has, however, stressed that since the start of 2026, some environmental themes have performed more positively versus benchmarks and peers. Management financial expectations for FY26 are unchanged and positive net flows are expected in FY27, but our forecasts are reduced in FY27 due to the lower starting-AUM level.
It has cited notable investor interest in energy security, resource efficiency, and electrification. The group is particularly bullish on its US business, fixed income, and its BNP Paribas business (Impax’s largest distribution partner).
Some positive signs for sustainable investing flows back up management’s positivity for FY27. We still expect that Impax will return to robust long-term growth and it operates in a huge sustainable investing market which topped $3.7 trillion at the end of June.
Our DCF value / share falls from 250p to 220p, with lower forecasts after the dip in Q4 AUM and a higher discount rate due to a jump in gilt yields. Yet this is still more than twice the current share price.
