Ongoing lockdowns in South China have impacted two of the Group’s largest OEM customers during the busiest period of the year, delaying the shipment of products. Associated costs have increased as an additional warehouse has been retained to deal with future lockdowns. Uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine and its implications have also impacted wider demand across several key markets. Little improvement is anticipated ahead of H2 ’23. The good news is that the completed acquisition of Billi strengthens the group’s product portfolio, pushing it into new products, geographies, and commercial markets. We expect Billi to be modestly earnings accretive during FY23, with wide-ranging synergy benefits improving its impact further into FY24.
We have reduced our financial estimates across the board for FY22 and FY23, although we continue to feel that the shares remain modestly priced relative to both our cash flow expectations and its peers. The yield remains the highest of its listed peers, at 8.2% for FY22.
We have adjusted estimates to reflect the inclusion of Billi and the softer than anticipated trading within Kettle Controls, with revenues declining 5% in FY22 and adj. EPS -16.6%. Nevertheless, we anticipate that revenues and adj. EBITDA should increase by 19.9% and 9.7% on a three-year CAGR to FY24. We have also adjusted our dividend expectation, although at the current share price level this still implies a sector leading yield of 8.2% in the current year.
The share price currently stands at an all-time low. We have updated our DCF and various peer group comparison valuation models, which give a fair value of 188p/share. Our fair value represents a significant premium to the existing share price.
