Trading slower to pick up in Q4

The material AMEY contract came on stream as planned but best expectations for H2 have been undone by a continuing weak macro-economic background. We have reduced our core hire estimates by c.8% at the EBITDA level for FY25E. This still infers progress versus H224 and is significantly above H125, albeit not with the momentum previously envisaged. Post the trading update, Speedy is trading on a 40% NAV discount and a c.13% dividend yield.

Our end FY25E NAV is c.4% lower (at 32.4p per share) and the share price discount has widened significantly to c.40%. In addition, the dividend yield is now 13.3% (based on an unchanged FY25E DPS, noting that this is uncovered by FY25E earnings and free cash flow). For the record, our previously derived DCF valuation of 51.1p/per share is equivalent to long-term EBITDA generation of c.£130m; we will review all inputs with the FY25 results announcement in June.