The results for the six-months to January are robust against a backdrop of declining confidence in both clients and candidates generally. With an improvement in the contract book during early Q3 we think this highlights that the tide is starting to turn and likely to feed through to demand for permanent hires ahead of the CY24 end. With net cash accounting for over 70% of the current market capitalisation, the operating business appears undervalued.
H1 results were broadly in line with expectations, as declining economic confidence reduced NFI by 12.8% yoy, with the UK down 10%. The decline in perm activity was largely responsible for the shortfall, with contract activity remaining robust during the period. Adjusted PBT improved modestly and adj. EPS was unchanged yoy at 1.6p.
Costs have reduced further, although Management continues to add headcount in its core areas of focus and strength. Also several new contracts/renewals were awarded during the period: these are likely to benefit H2 onwards and reflect a resurgent Business Development team.
We have taken a more conservative view of the outlook, reducing FY24 estimates in line with new guidance, albeit still anticipating meaningful growth in activity levels. The operating business excluding the net cash is valued at just £10.5m which seems too low given our EBIT forecasts. As such, we set a fair value of 140p / share.
