AUM was up by £2.2bn or 6% over H1-24, reaching £39.6bn on 31 Mar 24 (30 Sep 23: £37.4bn). This was a top-third growth rate among a London-listed peer group. While sustainable investing flows around the world have been subdued, we are seeing some early signs of a return to stronger flows.
H1-24 revenue of £86.2m was down 2% y-o-y from £88.0m in H1-23 on lower average AUM levels and an unchanged average fee margin of 45bps. However, an AUM recovery during the period saw run-rate revenue increase from £169.0m on 30 Sep 23 to £177.1m.
Adjusted operating profit fell 5% from £27.3m to £25.8m, and adjusted operating margin fell to 30.0% from 31.1% in H1-23. We expect this margin to be around the 30% mark for FY24 and then ratchet up to the high-30s or even 40% over the medium term as the business adds AUM and benefits from operating leverage following its recent investments in capacity.
Our longer-term forecasts are virtually unchanged, and our fundamental valuation remains 800p per share, c 60% above the closing share price. We also see Impax’s PER of 16.5 as an undemanding rating.
