AUM was slightly down (-0.4%) to £19.14bn over H1-24 (to 30 Sep 23), with a -2.9% fall in Q2 (Jul-Sep) following the +2.6% gain of Q1 (Apr-Jun). Investment performance was positive at +£546m (-£154m in Q2, and +£700m in Q1), net flows negative at -£581m (Q2: -£380m; Q1: -£201m), while fund closures reduced AUM by £50m.
We reduce our FY24 & FY25 forecasts due to AUM and marked-to-market performance fees being lower than prior forecast: end-FY24 AUM f’cast is now £19.4bn (prev. £20.7bn), FY24 revenue £169.2m (£178.4m), and core operating profit £40.7m (£44.1m). We reduce our fundamental valuation from 625p per share to 575p, although this is still 31% above the current share price.
Additionally, on page 2 we elaborate on why the recent sharp falls in asset management valuations look over-done to us, especially in light of recent M&A activity in the sector.
