AUM fell 1.0% over Q2 of FY23 (to 30 Sep 22) to £18.77bn (-15.1% over H1). Net flows totalled -£529m during the quarter (-£845m over H1), with market movements and investment performance contributing +£342m to AUM (-£2,051 over H1). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£459 impact on AUM.
Given continuing market uncertainty and outflows, our end-FY23 AUM forecast reduces to £18.3bn (previously £19.0bn). We do however highlight that because of market volatility we have not upgraded our performance fee forecast (currently £2.0m, net of staff allocations) even though ‘marked to market’ performance fees have increased to £4.8m. We shall review this again in Jan ‘23, when most performance fees will have crystallised.
Our fundamental valuation reduces to 600p per share, 50% above the current share price, and we flag that Polar’s PER is 8.0, far below a peer group median of 12.3
