After early signs of green shoots during Q2, what is clear is that customers are mindful of conserving cash – ordering frequently but in lower volumes. As such and notwithstanding a very positive maiden H1 contribution from Billi, profitability has declined. The Board’s response includes a fine-tuning of strategy, focusing on the most promising new products, cross-selling between brands, distribution agreements in new territories, online product launches and adjustments to the Group’s capital allocation policy. We have reduced FY23 and FY24 estimates, including the dividend. However, the medium-term objectives suggest strong upside in revenue and profitability to FY26.
We have reduced our fair value / share to 180p (vs 216p) to reflect the slower recovery in FY23. While investors will be disappointed in the short-term outcome, the guidance out to FY26 is encouraging. At the current share price, this values the business on a FY26 EV/EBITDA of c.4.9x and PER of 6.0x. Our revised fair value is a premium to the current share price of 97%.
