In a Trading Update for the six months to 30 September 2023, Supreme reports strong performance in line with a consensus market (adj.) FY24 EBITDA outlook of £29.0m; matching our estimates. The Group expects H1 24 revenue of above £100.0m (+55%YoY) and (adj.) EBITDA of at least £15.0m (H1 23: £8.1m). Previously, to accompany the 26th September AGM, the Group indicated FY24 revenue of £195m-£205m, and (adj.) EBITDA of £28m-£30m, leading to an increase in our (adj.) EBITDA outlook of 13%. Supreme reports that the Elf distribution agreement has exceeded initial expectations, contributing c.50% of H1 revenue and gross profit growth, whilst all of the other four Business Categories have reported both revenue and profits growth. The Group has guided to FY24 revenue from the Elf opportunity of c.£40.0m and a contribution to (adj.) EBITDA of c.£4.0m.
At the AGM, Supreme had reiterated its awareness of concerns surrounding youth vaping in the UK. The Group has now announced an eight-point series of measures and recommendations designed to “ensure its owned brands do not create any interest from underage vapers” (full details in the body of the note).
Following our recent AGM upgrade, our estimates remain unchanged and Fair Value remains at 200p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA of 8.2x.
