AUM fell to £25.3bn on 31 March ‘25 (Q2, FY25), down 25.7% from £34.1bn on 31 Dec ‘24, with £7.8bn of net outflows and £0.99bn negative investment performance. We knew net outflows would be significant in the quarter due to the previously announced termination of a £5.1bn St James’s Place mandate being reflected in Q2, and some other smaller mandate losses.
Investment performance was strong relative to broader market indices at -3.3% of average AUM. US markets experienced particularly heavy declines: the S&P mid-cap 400 fell 6% and the Russell 2000 fell 10% in the quarter (Impax’s portfolios have a small-mid-cap equities bias).
Post-quarter end, on 1 April ‘25, Impax closed its acquisition of fixed-income specialist Sky Harbor Capital Management, increasing AUM by c. £1.1bn. This further boosts Impax’s fixed income business, which may prove advantageous given current market (and potentially economic) turmoil.
Unsurprisingly, Impax has said that it now expects FY25 results to be below market expectations and our end-FY25 forecast AUM level falls c. 20% to £25.0bn. Running these changes through our DCF model results in a reduced fundamental value / share of 400p, down from 600p. But this valuation remains more than double the current share price which we believe does not reflect the underlying strength of the business.
