On 30 June 2022 (end-Q3 of Impax’s FY22), AUM totalled £34.5bn, 9% down on the end-Q2 AUM of £38.0bn and fractionally up y-o-y (30 Jun 21: £34.4bn). While the drop in AUM is significant in absolute terms, relative performance over the quarter is actually impressive.
Market movements and investment performance accounted for £3.28bn of the £3.47bn AUM fall, which equates to -8.6% of opening AUM. However, one of the best benchmarks to compare Impax’s investment performance to, the FTSE Environmental Opportunities All-Share Index, fell more than double that amount during the same quarter (-19.0%), while the MSCI ACWI fell 17.2%
We have adjusted our FY22 (12m to 30 Sep 22) AUM forecasts downwards from £40.5bn to £35.7bn to take into account the recent large equity market and AUM falls, which in turn results in a revised revenue forecast of £172m (down from £180m but still +20% y-o-y) and a revised adjusted operating profit forecast of £62m (down from £65m but +11% y-o-y). However, given the continuing strong prospects of the sustainable investing market generally, and Impax specifically, we remain confident that Impax will continue to deliver significant growth over the medium-to-longer term.
Our fundamental valuation per share adjusts to 1050p (from 1225p) which is still 80% above current levels.
