Near term disruption, but growth case remains strong

Ultimate Products announces today that sales revenue fell by 7% in its FY2024 third quarter and is anticipated to remain in negative territory in Q4. As a result, the company believes that EBITDA will now be in the range of £17.5m to £18.5m compared with a current market consensus figure of £21.5m.  Given the 17% cut in current year EBITDA expectations it seems prudent to adjust our fair value / share figure by a similar amount. So, we reduce it by 20% from 250p to 200p.

However, current sales setbacks look likely to prove temporary. The company clearly states its confidence in the group’s prospects for FY2025 as a whole. 

UP’s core franchise values and investor attractions remain intact despite recent disruption. The company generates around two thirds of sales from the Beldray and Salter brands and continues to work on the improved messaging around these two important homewares goods names. Additionally, the business is structured as attractively capital light, due to outsourced manufacturing with positive implications for return on net equity and free cash flow.