Moving in the right direction

Hunting’s AGM update signifies that FY25 has started well and our expectation of growth in all three estimate years is unchanged. Its share price has been hit by wider market sentiment; its valuation looks attractive against a range of comparator benchmarks. Following strong group progress in FY24 (with revenues and EBITDA norm ahead by 13% and 23% y-o-y respectively), FY25 has also started well. Further revenue growth and margin expansion – up c.200bp to 14% - in Q1 has driven a 34% EBITDA uplift (to U$38.7m).

After the FY24 results announcement, we re-balanced estimates (lowering FY25E EBITDA and raising FY26E by similar mid, single-digit percentages) chiefly to reflect expected phasing of the next larger OCTG orders. While remaining vigilant to potential secondary effects, management is continuing to focus on executing its 2030 strategy, targeting a significant uplift in group profitability over this period. 

After a good start to the year, Hunting’s share price is now down c. 11% YTD versus +1% for the FTSE All-Share Index. As a result, the company is trading on discounts to peers, our central DCF analysis, and the company’s last published NAV.

Using a blended current year peer rating and DCF approach suggests a fair value of 347p per share.