Meeting revised expectations

Having last updated the market on 3 February, Speedy’s FY25 outturn has been consistent with commentary at that time. As a result, EBITDA looks to be in line with the prior year with a slightly larger H2 weighting despite a quieter Q4. In our view, Speedy’s share price discounts long-term profitability below current levels and the c.40% NAV discount looks anomalous.

Speedy’s share price has traded around the 19p level since this time, so our valuation observations at that time remain valid. With pressure on UK GDP expectations, cyclical exposure is seemingly out of fashion as reflected in Speedy’s earnings multiples. The same sentiment is driving an unconventionally high dividend yield of 13.3%; we acknowledge some outlook risk here though consider this to be almost certainly overdone.