H1’26 to date has been characterised by progressive portfolio development actions – one acquisition and one exit – while Norcros has also managed some top line progress against the prior year in Q1. The proposed Fibo acquisition offers geographic diversity and synergy benefits. We have made no estimate changes arising from the AGM trading update or the Fibo acquisition at this stage (pending its formal completion), although revenue has nudged down to reflect JTSA as a discontinued operation.
Management expectations for FY26 are unchanged, despite market conditions remaining 'challenging'. In Q1’26 group revenue was ahead by 0.6% LFL yoy, with sales from the dominant UK & Ireland division up by 1.0%. Results of a previously announced strategic review of Johnson Tiles SA were announced, with a decision to cease tile manufacturing and a managed run down of operations.
Norcros has flagged a proposed c.£45m acquisition of Fibo Holding on an attractive historic entry multiple of 6.2x. Fibo is a leading European supplier of branded premium waterproof decorative wall panels, based in Norway, but the transaction is subject to UK CMA clearance.
Hence, Fibo is not included in our estimates at this stage. Yet we note and concur with management expectations that the acquisition could provide ‘material earnings accretion in the first full year of ownership’.
Norcros looks attractively rated: trading on single-digit P/Es and an EV/EBITDA ratio which compresses to 5x by FY28 (pre-Fibo). Its shares jumped by c.8% on news of the proposed deal and now sit near our 300p fair value. However, although the Fibo deal has moved the share price, we remind readers its potential benefits are yet to be factored into our estimates and fair value calculation.
