H2 has seen an acceleration of the progress made in H1, with the confidence that CAB management expressed at the end of H1 fully justified. FY25 income is now expected to be c. £119m, versus our previous forecast of £112.6m. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be ‘slightly above the range of consensus estimates’. Our previous EBITDA forecast was £32.9m with a maximum analyst forecast of £33.8m, so it seems likely that actual EBITDA will top £34m. CAB also stated that FY25 has seen positive operating leverage.
FY25 has been a transformational year for strategic and financial progress. In H1, network partner numbers and client numbers showed strong growth, which has almost certainly continued in H2. The network, and consequently additional growth potential, was enhanced with the opening of a New York office, a new International Money Transfer Operator licence in Nigeria, and the in-principle approval of a licence in Abu Dhabi.
FY26 starts off a higher base than we previously forecast, so it is highly likely that our forecasts will be raised, as will our fundamental valuation which is currently 90p/share (36% above last close). However, we will wait until 5th March to update our forecasts and valuation based on full FY25 results, and an updated growth outlook.
