How can an outside investor gauge the quality of a company's software? Speak to experts, test the product, ask clients and/or review industry awards/journals. Elecosoft scores highly on all of these counts - yet to us what really stands out is its customer base.
All told, ELCO's software is used by >90% of the UK's top 100 construction firms & 7/10 biggest retailers; 40 of the top 50 Swedish & 14 of the largest German construction groups; 70% of the EU's flooring manufacturers and 15% of 400 largest US contractors. Generating retention rates of >90% and almost 60% recurring revenues (Support, maintenance & SaaS).
The good news from this morning's positive trading update, is that the Board are well on track. H1'18 revenues climbed 7% LFL in constant currency (5% post forex headwind) to circa £10.5m (LY £10.0m) with adjusted PBT jumping 45% to £1.45m (LY £1.0m), on the back of favourable operating leverage and continued tight cost control.
Consequently, we reiterate our FY18 sales and EBIT forecasts of £22m and £3.6m respectively. Albeit, note that these are tilted towards the upside, especially given recent £ weakness vs the $. Likewise, H1 cash generation was strong, ending June with net funds of £2.6m compared to £1m at the start of the period equivalent to cash conversion of >105%. Plus, even after last month's strategic acquisition of Shire Systems for £5.1m (cash/debt free basis), we expect net debt to close Dec'18 at a modest £2.8m, or 0.62x EBITDA.
Similarly, while our top level 90p/share valuation remains unchanged, we once again emphasise that there is possible upside here too. In fact, despite this year's re-rating, the stock appears cheap vs peers who trade on higher EV/sales, EV/EBIT and PE multiples.
