AUM jumped 14% over H1-25 (to 30 Sep 24) from £16.6bn to £18.9bn. Net inflows added £1,832m (22% p.a. inflow rate, far higher than all peers, see page 4), and investment returns £534m (3.2% over 6m). Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets-Under-Management/Influence totalled £19.9bn. In the six weeks post-results, AUM/AUI increased another 4% to £20.6bn in early-Nov.
This is an exceptionally strong start to the next leg of Tatton’s growth journey. In June ‘24 it set a target of reaching £30bn AUI by end-FY29, an 11% CAGR.
Our previous forecasts assumed average net flows of c£150m per month. That was clearly overly-conservative. Monthly net flows actually averaged £305m over H1-25, far higher than £192m in FY24 and £150m in FY23. We upgrade forecasts assuming net flows of £200m per month for H2-25, as per Tatton guidance, reducing to c£170m per month after that (October net flows: £265m), also as guided.
This change materially increases our FY25 revenue and profit forecasts and our longer-term forecasts (see page 18). In turn, our fundamental valuation increases from 640p per share to 715p.
But with such a superior offering compared to peers in platform MPS (page 5), and structural market tailwinds (page 15), there is certainly potential for Tatton to grow faster than our current forecast and for our fundamental valuation to rise again.
