Polar’s +25% AUM growth rate over H1-26 was far stronger than all peers and almost five times the sector-median (page 4). AUM opened on 1 Apr 25 at £21.4bn, near the trough of the ‘tariff turmoil’ dip. It then jumped £5.3bn over H1 to £26.7bn, as markets recovered and Polar’s returns (+29%) beat broad market indexes by some distance (MSCI ACWI GBP: +15%). AUM has jumped another 6% between 30 Sep 25 and 7 Nov 25, and we raise our forecasts (page 15).
While average AUM of H1-26 was only 4% higher y-o-y, and revenue grew only 1% to £101.4m, H2-26 starts an AUM level 18% above H2-25 (£26.7bn v £22.7bn – page 9). This tees Polar up for very strong growth over FY26. We forecast full-year FY26 revenue to be c. 13% higher than FY25.
New CEO Iain Evans is confident in growth prospects and is especially bullish on building the US and Asian client base, adding to Polar’s strong European base (page 3). Improving net flows (page 8) and pipeline strength back up his assertion that interest in active management is returning. We believe quality, specialist active managers will always have a place - and Polar’s investment track record is outstanding (page 5 & 6). With AUM levels above previous forecasts and a strong outlook, we raise forecasts and our DCF fundamental valuation to 675p per share (page 16).
