AUM increased 4% over H1-25 (1 Apr 24 – 30 Sep 24) to £22.7bn from £21.9bn on 31 Mar 24. It was a half-year of two quarters with Q1 AUM up by 7.4% (net inflows: +£644m, investment performance: +£978m), while a more challenging and volatile market environment saw Q2 AUM down 3.5% (net outflows: -£172m, investment performance: -£655m).
The marginally negative net flows of Q2 (0.7% of AUM) were not a surprise for a period of investor nervousness, with UK investors withdrawing from equity funds in the latter part of the quarter (see page 2). And the negative investment performance of Q2 occurred in a period which saw an equity sell-off and a significant currency headwind on those assets held in US$. Polar’s reporting currency, GBP, strengthened by 6% over the US$ in Q2 from 1.26 to 1.34.
Other than adjusting performance fees, forecasts are unchanged. We note our end-FY25 (31 Mar 25) AUM forecast is £23.5bn, only 3.5% above that of 30 Sep 24. Our fundamental valuation remains 650p, 22% above the share price. With its strong profit margins, balance sheet, and a dividend yield of 8.6%, we think Polar Capital should trade at a substantial premium to its PER of 12.6.
