AUM increased £0.8bn (+4%) in H1-25 to £22.7bn on 30 Sep 24. Net flows added +£472m and investment performance +£323m. This was a highly creditable performance relative to peers, with Polar one of only two London-listed asset managers to record positive net flows (page 3). Furthermore, post-interim-results, AUM has increased another 5% to £23.9bn on 8 Nov 24.
Polar’s prospects remain strong, despite current headwinds for active managers which we believe will abate (page 16), and ongoing market uncertainty. It has a range of specialist investment strategies (which it continues to expand e.g. a new International Small Company Strategy), and an enviable longer- and shorter-term investment track record, all of which should generate ongoing demand.
Our AUM, revenue, and profit forecasts move up with the higher-than-forecast current AUM level (other than FY25 statutory profit forecasts which drop on the Dalton impairment). Our fundamental valuation remains 650p/share, 27% above today’s price. With strong margins, balance sheet, and dividend yield we also think Polar should trade at a higher PER than its current 10.7 (page 19).
