Hercules has reported strong full year results, with profits well ahead of our expectations. Against a supportive backdrop for infrastructure investment, we believe momentum is building and a positive outlook statement anticipates another year of growth in FY24. We reflect this in our revenue forecasts, whilst noting that an increasing interest charge will reduce profits in the short term.
All three divisions contributed to the strong growth in FY23, but Labour Supply remains, by some distance, the largest element of the Group. This division accounted for 75% of Group revenue and 65% of gross profit whilst also delivering the strongest revenue growth in FY23 (+92%). This was driven in particular by additional demand under the Balfour Vinci JV contract on HS2 (London to Birmingham), which still has several years to run.
The outlook statement strikes a positive tone, highlighting new revenue streams which should make a positive impact in FY24. Further organic progress therefore looks well underpinned and November’s Future Build acquisition (Hercules’ first deal) adds another leg to the growth story.
Hercules trades on a FY25 P/E rating of c.16x and a dividend yield of 7% with scope for good earnings growth over the medium term. Our new Fair Value / share estimate is 55p (from 60p), representing a FY25 EV/EBITDA rating of 11.5x
