Brooks Macdonald (BM) recorded a solid H1-23 (to 31 Dec 22) with FUM up 4% to £16.2bn, from £15.7bn on 30 Jun 22. Net inflows totalled +£347m and investment performance +£212m (+1.4% compared to -0.3% of the benchmark MSCI PIMFA Private Investor Balanced Index). A 7th consecutive quarter of positive net flows was recorded, with impressive resilience through the 2022 bear market, pointing to very strong fundamentals when it comes to attracting and retaining client assets. In calendar-2022, BM’s net inflow rate was one of the highest among a London-listed peer group of wealth managers and platforms.
We have upgraded our FY23 and FY24 FUM forecasts on a more positive net flow outlook than we originally assumed, and on a mark to market adjustment of FUM levels. We now forecast £17.4bn FUM at end-FY23 (previously £17.0bn). Our revenue forecast increases from £119.5m to £122.8m on the FUM upgrade, current yields being slightly higher than our original assumptions, and on contributions from acquisitions. Our underlying PBT forecast increases from £31.7m to £34.1m.
Our fundamental valuation increases to 3,150p per share, 57% above the current share price. We also flag that BM’s PER of 13.5 is 36% below a peer group median of 21.2, which doesn’t look justified.
