The AGM update was encouraging and indicated that ‘green shoots’ continued to emerge, with momentum building during Q2 as the frequency of orders increased. Volumes, however, have yet to pick up, suggesting OEM customers are maintaining inventories and conserving cash. Significantly, the Group is seasonally H2 weighted with September to November critical months ahead of Christmas and Chinese New Year. Strix continues to trade in-line with market consensus (PAT of £25.8m) and as such, we see no reason to adjust estimates. The integration of the Q4 acquisition of Billi is on track, with a degree of excitement of the launch of the new one-tap system in Australia. We are particularly encouraged by the new product pipeline and the opportunity to gain a firmer foothold in North America.
We visited the facilities on the Isle of Man during an Investor Day ahead of the Group’s AGM. Meetings included an introduction to the Company, greater detail on the Chinese factory opened in Q3 2021, presentation of forthcoming product launches, and a factory & tool room tour (see main body of note for more).
We think the shares have been largely overlooked, sitting on a single digit FY23 PER and at a marked discount to its peers. Our fair value / share of 216p, based on several valuation models, is more than double the current share price.
