EBITDA & margin up again, undervaluation rises

H1-26 (to 30 Sep 25) saw EBITDA jump 14% y-o-y to £4.2m and EBITDA margin up from 20.8% to 24.6%. Impressively, this was achieved in a muted period for portfolio activity, with revenue slightly down from £17.6m to £17.2m. 

AUM was marginally up at £2.0bn. Capital raises and new mandates added +£52m, offset by distributions of -£56m: mostly dividends to VCT shareholders and returns of capital by funds in their realisation phase. Valuation moves added +£16m. There were no redemptions. Mercia is benefitting from operational efficiencies, taking advantage of its increased scale compared to a few years ago.

Clearly, the portfolio is being deeply discounted by investors, yet Mercia has a proven track record of exiting at a premium to NAV. Its strategy is to sell c.70% of the portfolio over the next few years, so it won’t take long to see if the market is being grossly over-conservative. We think that it is. Our fundamental valuation equates to 58p per share, 99% above the current share price.