Divisional growth on track, group scaling up

The interim results were a strong reminder that operationally RQIH remains on track to meet its defined strategic targets. Some of this was obscured during the first six months by an unsuccessful bid and a US$130m equity issue (completed in June/July), the legacy of which is yet to fully unwind. We reviewed these in detail in our note published in August, which also reiterated the fundamental investment case. The latter pivots on a strategy to create two recurring fee-based, less capital-intensive businesses which will generate improved returns on investment and cashflows to fund progressive shareholder distributions.

The interims set out the components of this plan, plus a range of detailed metrics against which we intend to track progress in future updates. The current phase is focused on a US$20-25m investment program designed to streamline every part of the group operationally. This is expected to deliver significant improvements in efficiency plus US$10m of annual cost savings by 2024. Enhancements to the Board composition were announced, with others expected.

As anticipated, there was no interim distribution, but our dividend forecasts and FV/share generate a 4% yield in FY 2024. Short term uncertainty remains related to the intentions of significant shareholders, with an SGM on 13th September that has the potential to affect the board composition.

We retain our 170p Fair Value/share. That equates to a PER well below 10x our estimated adjusted underlying FY24 EPS of 18p, based on current RQIH guidance of $90m FY24 pre-tax operating profit.