New Model Anti-infectives

Destiny's lead product XF-73 is in the US and European Phase 2b study for a new preventative indication never awarded to any other drug before. The clinical study of XF-73, which has proven antimicrobial activity, is expected to report an interim review in August 2020. As anti-infectives have higher probabilities of success than other therapeutic areas, Destiny’s destiny looks bright.

Many august healthcare organisations such as the World Health Organisation and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have warned about the shortage of new antimicrobial agents to fight the global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, many biotech companies have fallen into the trap of developing new anti-infective treatments in indications where there is no unmet medical need, or where generic competition already exists. Destiny Pharma’s novel first drug neatly side-steps all of these issues by developing XF-73 for the prevention of post-surgical staphylococcal infections.

Destiny’s fruitful discussions with the FDA have resulted in recruitment recommencing in earnest and is now up to 77 patients. A smart protocol adaption has been agreed which reduces enrolment to 125 patients without compromising the power of the study’s primary endpoint. The study is now about two thirds enrolled. This is a positive development since it saves Destiny money and time; and should ensure recruitment completion by the end of 2020.

We use a risk-adjusted NPV model to value Destiny Pharma based only on the development costs, our expectations of future milestone and licensing revenues for XF-73, and Destiny’s cash. Our fair value of Destiny Pharma is £86.3m or 197p per share.