PensionBee has continued to grow its customer base in line with targets, with a 72% annual increase in invested customers to 159k on 30 Jun 22 from 92k on 30 Jun 21 (+36% over H1-22 from 117k on 31 Dec 21). It remains on track to meet our forecast of 200k by the end of FY22. Registered customers (a ‘top of sales funnel’ metric) grew 66% y-o-y from 538k on 30 Jun 21 to 897k (+36% over H1 from 658k on 31 Dec 21). The rate of customer growth is evidence that the post-IPO ramp-up in marketing spend is having the planned ‘scale-up’ impact.
While PensionBee has certainly met our growth forecasts in terms of customer numbers, market falls have pegged back AUA growth, and we have reduced our AUA, revenue and profit growth forecasts accordingly, and will refine these, and our longer-term forecasts with H1-22 results on 22 Sep 22.
Our AUA forecast for end-FY22 reduces to £3.6bn (from previous forecast of £4.3bn but +39% over FY21); revenue forecast for FY22 reduces to £18.8m (from £21.1m but +47% over FY21, with PensionBee guiding for revenue to be in the range of £17-£20m); and our adjusted EBITDA forecast reduces to -£20.9m (from -£16.4m, with PensionBee still guiding positive adj. EBITDA by FY24). In turn, our fundamental value adjusts to 200p per share from 230p.
