AUM flat in Q4, ‘solid evidence flows are stabilising’

AUM closed FY25 (1 Oct 24 - 30 Sep 25) on £26.1bn, above our previous forecast of £25.0bn. In Q4 (Jul – Sep), investment performance contributed +£1.4bn (+5.3%), offset by net outflows of -£1.4bn, in a quarter of heavy outflows for equity funds more generally (page 3).

Impax’s outflows were slightly up on the previous quarter (-£1.3bn), but were a marked improvement over H1, which saw £10.2bn of net outflows, dominated by the loss of £6.2bn of St James’s Place mandates. We make very minor tweaks to our FY25 forecasts with FY25 results expected late-November, when we will update our FY26 (and beyond) forecasts.

We maintain our view that Impax’s differentiated offering within a large and growing market means a return to solid net inflows is just a matter of time, as is a re-rating of the share price. Our DCF valuation is 400p / share. Also, Impax’s PER of 8.0, the lowest in the sector, looks misplaced (page 4).