AUM jumped £2.3bn (+12%) over Q4 of FY24 to £21.9bn on 31 Mar 24, which is 12% above our previous forecast of £19.5bn, and +14% y-o-y growth (AUM 31 Mar 23: £19.2bn). In turn, our FY24 revenue forecast increases from £188.4m to £191.6m (+5% y-o-y, FY23: £182.9m).
PBT rose from £50.1m to £52.1m (+15% y-o-y, FY23: £45.2m) and basic EPS from 38.3p to 39.8p (+8% y-o-y, FY23: 36.8p). The EPS revision translates to a forward PER of just 11.5x
Investment performance was the booster for AUM in Q4, adding +£2.3bn or +12%, but for us probably most pleasing update was a return to positive, albeit modest, net flows in the quarter of +£56m. Moreover, Polar reported strong net flows in March (+£228m).
For the sector, there are signs of an improving outlook for UK and European equity and active management fund flows. For Polar Capital we think that its PER has clear potential for a re-rating and our fundamental valuation increases to 650p/share (42% above the current share price).
