With sentiment starting to turn better for the housebuilding sector, our analyst provides commentary on the latest outlook reported by some of the key players:
|
Company |
Share Price (p) |
Market Cap (£m) |
Year end |
Latest update |
Latest outlook / ED thoughts |
Next planned update |
|
Vistry |
841 |
2,901 |
Dec |
18/05/2023 |
We have continued to see improving market conditions and the Group has traded in line with our expectations for the year to date. I am increasingly confident on the outlook for Vistry for FY23 and expect adjusted profit before tax for FY23 to be in excess of £450m. Group sales rate continues to improve with the average weekly private sales rate per site per week at 0.83 for the year to date. Excluding bulk sales in Housebuilding, the Group sales rate in the period was 0.65.Open market pricing has remained resilient, supported by the use of incentives particularly targeted at first time buyers. |
20/07/2023 |
|
Barratt Developments |
502 |
4,940 |
June |
03/05/2023 |
Whilst the economic backdrop remains difficult, we are pleased that more positive sales rates have been maintained through this period and we are now fully forward sold for FY23. As a result, we expect to deliver full year adjusted profit before tax in line with current market expectations. |
13/07/2023 |
|
Taylor Wimpey |
125 |
4,415 |
Dec |
27/04/2023 |
We have seen continued recovery in demand from the low levels experienced towards the end of 2022, supported by good mortgage availability, and have seen an incremental improvement in sales rate as the Spring selling season has progressed. |
02/08/2023 |
|
Persimmon |
1323 |
4,283 |
Dec |
26/04/2023 |
Trading over recent weeks has offered some signs of encouragement with visitor numbers up, cancellation levels normalising and sales rates continuing the steady improvement evident since the start of the year. If sales rates continue at the levels seen year to date, we would expect full year 2023 volumes to be toward the top end of the previously indicated range. Sales prices remained firm. |
10/08/2023 |
|
Bellway |
2482 |
3,037 |
July |
28/03/2023 |
Customer demand has improved in this calendar year, helped by a seasonal uplift and a fall in mortgage rates. Recent reservation rates are higher than the levels in the quarter to 31 December 2022, although below the very strong comparative in the prior year. |
13/06/2023 |
|
Crest Nicholson |
265 |
678 |
Oct |
23/03/2023 |
The most likely economic scenario we articulated back in January continues to be realised as average selling prices have remained robust with an enduring lack of housing supply. The market is clearly softer than the previous two years of trading, however it remains resilient. |
08/06/2023 |
|
Berkeley Group |
4264 |
4,647 |
April |
10/03/2023 |
Berkeley's current trading is in line with the levels identified in the December interim results, in which sales since the end of September 2022 were around 25% lower than the strong first five months of the financial year. This is a resilient performance in the context of the market volatility since the end of September and reflects the underlying demand for quality homes in London and the South East. |
21/06/2023 |
|
Springfield Properties |
88 |
104 |
May |
21/02/2023 |
While it is too early to call a recovery, the green shoots we are experiencing and which are being seen across the industry, through increased reservations and visitor levels, are encouraging. |
Jun '23 |
|
MJ Gleeson |
458 |
266 |
June |
16/02/2023 |
In terms of guidance: confidence, underpinned by improved mortgage rates, is slowly returning to the market, evidenced by improving net reservations. |
07/07/2023 |
|
Redrow |
535 |
1,771 |
July |
09/02/2023 |
Whilst 2023 will be a challenging year as the market resets, early indications are better than anticipated and the market appears to be finding a new, natural level. |
13/09/2023 |
|
Ticker |
Name |
Share Price £ |
Market Cap £m |
Enterprise Value £m |
P/E (NTM) |
EV/EBITDA (NTM) |
P/TBV (LTM) |
|
VTY |
Vistry Group PLC |
8.51 |
2,937 |
2,905 |
9.1 |
6.1 |
1.5 |
|
BKG |
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc |
43.38 |
4,667 |
4,329 |
10.5 |
8.2 |
1.5 |
|
PSN |
Persimmon Plc |
13.43 |
4,289 |
3,438 |
15.3 |
8.8 |
1.3 |
|
BDEV |
Barratt Developments plc |
5.06 |
4,959 |
4,035 |
9.5 |
5.5 |
1.1 |
|
TW |
Taylor Wimpey plc |
1.26 |
4,453 |
3,617 |
14.2 |
7.9 |
1.0 |
|
GLE |
MJ Gleeson plc |
4.62 |
269 |
260 |
11.2 |
7.2 |
1.0 |
|
RDW |
Redrow plc |
5.42 |
1,745 |
1,638 |
6.5 |
4.4 |
0.9 |
|
BWY |
Bellway p.l.c. |
25.00 |
3,048 |
2,756 |
9.5 |
6.0 |
0.9 |
|
CRST |
Crest Nicholson Holdings plc |
2.64 |
677 |
403 |
12.1 |
4.9 |
0.8 |
|
SPR |
Springfield Properties Plc |
0.88 |
104 |
178 |
7.9 |
7.7 |
0.8 |
Data source: ADVFN
