Vp

www.vpplc.com TICKER: VP.     EXCHANGE: FTSE

Vp plc is a specialist rental business providing products and services to a diverse range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas.    

LATEST REPORTS

 
On track for another year of progress
Published: Aug 02 2018

House prices are almost as British as fish & chips. Hardly surprising really, given in total residential property is worth a staggering £7.1 trillion (source: Savills), or >4x GDP. So what’s the latest word on the street? Well despite being buffeted in Q1’18 by the country’s other favourite topic, the weather – the recent outlook from the nation’s housebuilders appears to be positive. The UK construction industry rebounded 2.9% in May, led by ‘new build homes’ which were up 8.4% on LFL terms. 
Going forward, we expect activity levels to remain supportive - albeit slightly less so in central London, which has greater BREXIT exposure and much higher property values.  This positive outlook underpins our forecasts for specialist plant hire group Vp, who released an upbeat trading statement this morning ahead of its AGM. 
Here, the company has enjoyed an encouraging 1st four months, with its core UK infrastructure, housebuilding & construction markets demonstrating solid demand. The integration of Brandon Hire is also progressing to plan. 
Elsewhere, there has been a “modest recovery” in the overseas oil & gas business (Airpac Bukom) reflecting improved crude prices, allied to good trading at the AsiaPac test & measurement operation.
Consequently, we make no change to our numbers, but nudge up the valuation to £11.00/share from £10.70 - based on a 12x EV/EBIT multiple, which is consistent with sector EV/EBITDA averages of 6.4x.
 
Beats on both top and bottom lines
Published: Jun 05 2018

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil/gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also from overseas.              
The UK construction industry ploughs ahead unabated. Building the 100ks of new homes the country desperately needs, together with updating often capacity constrained & dilapidated infrastructure (eg rail, power, water, airports, etc). Secular trends that should endure irrespective of Brexit. Indeed the Construction Products Association (CPA) reckon that despite a weak Q1’18 (-2.7%), UK building output will expand on average at 1.0% for the following 3 quarters (0.1% FY), before accelerating to 2.7% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020.
So we remain confident that Vp will continue to outperform over the cycle. Indeed the firm’s ‘tried & tested’ approach of focusing on renting specialist equipment, complemented by flawless execution and synergistic M&A - enabled it to post exemplary results once again this morning. FY18 revenues, adjusted PBT, EPS and dividends all climbed to £303.6m (+22.1%), £40.6m (+16%, ED £39.2m), 81.8p (+18%) and 26p (+18%) respectively. Propelled by an “excellent” performance in the UK, where EBIT rose 20% to £43m – representing almost 98% (95% LY) of the business – on revenues 24% up at £272.0m (margin 15.8%). 
Furthermore from a macro perspective, the leading operators seem to be expanding faster than the pack. Here the top 5 groups, who possess an approx 31% share, generate greater economies of scale. Enabling them to not only invest in the latest equipment/technology (eg remote diagnostic, safety enhancements), but also provide 24-7 national, same-day breakdown cover.
A 2-pronged strategy which paid off handsomely in FY18, as Vp was able to purchase Brandon Hire in November for £68.8m (biggest ever acquisition) at reasonable 2016 EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and EV/Book (debt/cash free) multiples of 5.6x, 11.5x and 1.9x.
At 940p, investors can access this double digit growth at a current year (CY) PEG of 0.6x. Indeed we have nudged up both our forecasts and valuation to 1,070p/share (vs 970p before) – on the back of the “outstanding” FY18 out-turn and enhanced competitive position within tool hire. 
 
Solid as a rock
Published: Apr 06 2018

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily (>90% FY19 sales) within the UK, but also from overseas.                                                      
Today the company said in a y/e pre-close trading update that it had once again delivered another predictably “good” set of numbers, despite this year’s unusually wintery weather disrupting the broader UK construction industry. Here, the group enjoyed continued solid demand from its core infrastructure (AMP6 water, transmission & rail), construction (repair & maintenance/office fit out) and housebuilding markets - in aggregate contributing >80% revenues. Importantly too, providing a favourable backdrop for the likes of Hire Station, Groundforce and UK Forks as FY19 kicks off.
This organic growth was augmented by a couple of relatively small bolt-on UK acquisitions (Re Zenith Survey Equipment and Jackson Mechanical Services  in April 2017). Although further afield the International division experienced difficult conditions in Oil/Gas which impacted Airpac Bukom, partly offset by encouraging signs in the AsiaPac test/measurement business (TR Pty).
One of the strengths of Vp is its natural balance across several specialised areas, thus enabling it to ride out most transitionary storms or mini speed-bumps. Consequently FY18 results are anticipated to be “in line with expectations” - ED PBTA at £39.2m (vs consensus £38.9m), generating adjusted EPS of 79.7p, alongside a healthy 25.2p dividend (3.0% yield). 
Based on our FY19 estimates, at 825p Vp trades at an undeserved discount to the equipment hire sector, equivalent to EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and PER multiples of 5.3x, 9.9x and 8.8x respectively. Or in other words, far too cheap for this quality GARP stock, especially in light of its predicted current year double digit earnings growth and PEG of 0.5x.
We make no change to our forecasts or 970p/share valuation, well above current price levels - reflecting the expected step change in performance this year, thanks to the synergistic £68.8m Brandon deal (completed 7th November and cleared 7th March by the CMA) in terms of enhanced geographical spread, strategic positioning and cost savings (eg fleet capex and overhead procurement).
 
Record H1 & strategic £68.8m acquisition of Brandon Hire
Published: Nov 21 2017

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily (>90% FY19 sales) within the UK, but also from overseas.
Encouragingly, the existing business continues to bang out “excellent” numbers, such as today’s interims. Here, headline adjusted PBTA came in at £21.1m up 13% (vs £18.7m LY) on turnover 12% higher to £136m (£121.7m) - delivering EPS of 44.2p (+17%), 16% ROCE and a 6.8p dividend (+13%). Divisionally, the UK continues to be the standout performer, contributing 88% and 94% respectively of H1’18 revenues and EBIT - reflecting robust performances from construction, housebuilding, AMP6 water spend and infrastructure, particularly boosting Hire Station and Groundforce.
The trick to successful M&A is knowing the target inside-out, not over-paying and then integrating flawlessly to deliver the desired synergies. To us, on all of these fronts, Vp’s canny £68.8m purchase of Brandon Hire (924 FTEs) on 7th November (from private equity house, Rutland Partners) scores highly.
The price is attractive, equivalent to 2016 EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and EV/Book (debt/cash free) multiples of 5.6x, 11.5x and 1.9x – representing a discount to the sector and offering an immediate 8.7% Return on Investment (RoI, pre-integration). Although Brandon is not anticipated to make a material contribution to profits in FY18, we reckon there is plenty of scope to lift EBIT margins from 7.5% to >10% in due course, thanks to: cost/procurement savings, synergies, economies of scale and improved asset/inventory utilisation.
Strategically too, the deal looks a neat cultural, geographic and customer fit with Vp’s Hire Station (HS) unit. Indeed, with a branch network of 143 (typically smaller) sites, Brandon is a national operator servicing circa 20,000 SMEs, with regional ties to the South West, Wales and in/around towns.
Better still, the transaction should be strongly earnings accretive, with our FY19 adjusted EPS forecast climbing 17% from 78.3p to 93.3p. Similarly pushing up our valuation to 970p/share (vs 890p), equivalent to circa 11x and 6x next year’s EBITA and EBITDA for the enlarged group.
 
On track for further profitable growth
Published: Sep 29 2017

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK (88.5% FY17 sales), but also increasingly overseas (11.5%).
If looking for a solid, dependable and well diversified plant-hire specialist, then perhaps look no further than Vp, who navigated the last downturn with real aplomb. 
It said yesterday that trading for the first 5 months had been “positive” and consistent “with full year expectations”. An impressive performance, especially given macro concerns over BREXIT, a potentially slowing UK economy, a moribund crude price and unsupportive global geopolitics.
In the UK, “healthy demand” continues to be experienced in infrastructure, construction and housebuilding, augmented by April’s acquisitions of Zenith Survey Equipment (£6.15m) and Jackson Mechanical Services (£3.6). Encouragingly too, the overseas oil/gas division (Airpac Bukom) has also seen stabilisation return in AsiaPac.
As such, we make no change to our forecasts or 890p/share valuation, and look forward to hearing more at the interims on 21 November 2017. Longer term, construction of the UK’s new nuclear reactor at Hinkley Point (£17.6bn), a 3rd runway at Heathrow (£17.8m), HS2 (£55.7bn), London’s super-sewer and Crossrail 2 should all prove supportive too.
 
Making all the right moves
Published: Jun 06 2017

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK (88.5% FY17 sales), but also increasingly overseas (11.5%).
They have today issued another “excellent” set of results. FY'17 PBTA and EPS coming in at £34.9m (+17%) and 69.5p (+12%) respectively, with the dividend hiked up 17% to 22p on the back of 16% ROCE - once again in excess of the Board’s stretching ‘through-cycle’ goal of 15%. 
Indeed, returns have far exceeded Vp’s cost of capital for some time now, reflecting market share gains and 1st class execution, underpinned by a strategy of supplying only specialist, high margin equipment for targeted verticals enjoying secular growth.
This impressive performance has been achieved without gearing up the balance sheet either, with the ratio of net debt to EBITDA holding steady at a comfortable 1.0x-1.5x. Indeed, we believe disciplined capital allocation is a key theme that is unlikely to change anytime soon, given the extensive experience of the executive team, and the careful guidance offered by the Pilkington family (50% stake). 
In light of the better-than-expected outturn, allied to Vp’s positive outlook and continued compelling ROCE, growth rates and EBITA margins, we have duly lifted FY'18 PBTA by 9% to £39.0m. Moreover, at 850p the stock trades at a discount to peer averages in terms of EV/EBITA and PE multiples, whilst also paying a 2.6% dividend yield. 
Based on 12x FY'18 operating profits (vs 12.8x for the sector, excluding HSS), adjusted for projected net debt and discounted back at 10%, we calculate Vp to be worth 890p per share (vs 800p previously).
 
Another record year
Published: Apr 07 2017

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas (Estimated at 12% of sales).
Quality stocks seem to consistently outperform their peers through both ‘thick and thin’ - and for specialist equipment hire business Vp, this certainly seems to be the case. You see, during the 2008-9 financial crisis the company’s downside resilience helped it cope admirably amid some of the toughest conditions in living memory – while many of its rivals only escaped bankruptcy by the skin of their teeth.
Indeed this morning there is another encouraging pre-close update saying results for the y/e March 2017 would be “in line with current market expectations”, after “positive” winter trading (re mild weather supporting UK building activity).Here, we think that the group continued to experience robust demand in H2 across its Ground Force, Hire Station and UK Forks divisions, along with not being unduly affected (re Torrent Trackside) by recent construction delays at Network Rail which has temporarily impacted the likes of Van Elle’s specialist piling operations.
Furthermore, the Board also announced the £3.6m acquisition of Jackson Mechanical Services (UK) Limited, which operates from Harpenden/Leeds and will be integrated within Hire Station. This appears to be another a sensible bolt-on deal and should prove to be earnings accretive in year 1.
We make no change to our FY 17–18 PBT estimates of £33.7m and £35.8m respectively, and await full details of the transaction at the prelims in June. In terms of valuation, the stock at 800p continues to rate as good value trading on EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and PER multiples of 6.2x, 11.7x and 11.7x - whilst delivering better than sector average ROCE and offering a 2.6% dividend yield.

ARCHIVE

2016
Excellent 1st half drives profit upgrades
Published: Nov 29 2016

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas (Estimated at 12% of sales).  Vp plc this morning produced strong interim results: H1’17 adjusted PBTA came in at £18.7m (+9%) on turnover up 16% to £121.7m, delivering EPS of 37.9p (+8%) and a 15.6% ROCE - the latter exceeding the Board’s own internal targets of 15%, and once again reinforcing the quality of the business vs rivals.
The recent surge in corporate activity around rental equipment is a function of the sector’s attractive long term prospects and healthy margins – allied to the recent 15%-20% fall in the £ vs $, which has acted as a catalyst for potential overseas buyers. The starting gun fired over the summer after news broke that activist investor Toscafund was trying (& still is) to push Speedy Hire and HSS to merge. Then, a fortnight ago Avesco agreed to be snapped up by NEP Group for £124m (or 650p/share), equivalent to prospective multiples of 15.5x EV/EBIT and 25x earnings. And finally last week Lavendon rejected an opportunistic bid from Belgium’s TVH Group, pitched at 205p/share (worth £349m), representing to a take-out price of 10.5x EV/EBIT
Vp is unlikely to be taken-over anytime soon ( as 50.26% is owned by a number of trusts connected to Executive Chairman Jeremy Pilkington), albeit we still believe the stock at 720p is favourably priced compared to peers  - trading on a modest PER of 10.5x, along with offering a 2.9% dividend yield.
The UK continues to be Vp’s main profit engine, contributing 89% and 97% respectively of H1’17 revenues and EBIT - reflecting robust performances from construction, housebuilding, AMP6 water spend and infrastructure, particularly boosting Hire Station and Groundforce. Thanks to the better than expected H1 out-turn, we have upgraded FY17 PBTA estimates by 3% to £33.7m (from £32.7m), which has accordingly increased our valuation to 800p/share (from 770p) - based on a 12x CY EBITA multiple, adjusted for net debt and discounted back at 10%.
Vp - Equity Development Investor Forum, September 2016
Published: Sep 30 2016

Neil Stothard, Chief Executive, explains to investors the opportunities for the business.
Trading slightly ahead of expectations
Published: Sep 28 2016

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas (estimated at 12% of sales).
In their H1 trading update this morning, Vp said that it had maintained its positive start to its financial year (to end March 2017) with good progress made in the majority of its markets, and that the UK division (88% of FY’17 revenues, on our forecasts) had enjoyed healthy trading within the construction and housebuilding sectors, supported by solid demand from the infrastructure markets, and is delivering good year on year growth. 
Today’s statement also said that within the International division, TR Group (acquired in April 2016 for A$24m) is integrating well within the overall Group and trading in line with expectations. Chief Executive Neil Stothard concluded today’s trading update by saying “Overall the Group is trading well and we continue to anticipate making further good progress in the year”.  
In our view fears of a full blown BREXIT induced recession appear misplaced, with consensus now being that the British economy should be able to weather any short term dip in activity. Consequently, even though Vp reports that the oil and gas sector remains “challenging” (6% of group sales) , we have increased our adjusted FY’17 and FY’18 PBT estimates by 1.6% to £32.7m and £34.7m respectively. 
As our note confirms, Vp is currently performing towards the top end of its peer group, especially in relation to rental growth and ROCE, yet in terms of forecast P/E and yield is still very conservatively rated. As a result of our modest upgrades today, we lift our target price to 770p per share. Vp will report its interim results on 29 November.
'Positive start' to the year, even post Brexit
Published: Jul 27 2016

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas (Estimated at 12% of sales).
Is Britain at risk of talking itself into a recession? Following last month's EU Referendum, the media has been awash with predictions of a collapse in house prices and business confidence. Sure, there is likely to be some form of temporary impact, especially in prime central London property - but with UK assets now circa 10% cheaper for foreign investors thanks to Sterling's recent devaluation and interest rates nailed at 0.5%, then we just don't see a prolonged slump in demand.
Furthermore, quality firms like Vp, delivering niche services into the infrastructure and construction sectors, are still ticking along nicely. Indeed yesterday the company said in a brief trading update that it had experienced no noticeable slowdown since the BREXIT vote and was on track to meet FY17 expectations.
As such, we reiterate our FY17 adjusted EBITA and EPS estimates of £35m and 67p respectively, along with the 760p/share price target. Additionally at 675p, we think the stock looks cheap, representing a near 10% discount to peer EV/EBITA multiples. This seems unwarranted given Vp's healthy capital returns, downside resilience, strong balance sheet and attractive growth prospects. 
Second record breaking year in a row
Published: Jun 07 2016

This morning, Vp plc posted another set of record results, (against a backdrop of more subdued UK building activity ahead of the EU Referendum), driving operating margins up to 15.3% from 14.0%, on the back of improved divisional mix, operational gearing and asset disposals. For the year to 31 March 2016, Vp reported an 11% improvement in profit before tax and amortisation to £29.8 million, a 14% increase in basic earnings per share, pre-amortisation, to 62.21 pence, and a 14% increase in the full year dividend, to 18.85p.
 
In 2015/16 the star divisional performers were: Hire Station (Tools and specialist products for industry, construction and home owners), where revenue increased 7% to £82.5m, and profits increased by 32% to £11.5 million, and UK Forks, (revenue up 10% at £20m, and profits up 30% to £5.2 million). ROACE came in at a healthy 16.3% (vs 16.2%), noticeably above the Board's stretching 15% target and double Vp's present cost of capital (CoC), which we pitch at around 8%.
 
The beauty of Vp's model is that it is scalable, with one of the Board's top strategic priorities being to replicate this domestic success abroad. Consequently in April, the company acquired TR Pty Ltd of Australia for A$24m (~£13.2m), with the acquisition expected to be immediately earnings enhancing. Looking ahead, more foreign M&A deals are probable, subject of course to the right quality targets being available in terms of strategic fit, product, geography and price.
 
Their positive momentum has continued into FY17, thanks to Vp's strong niche positions within the construction, housing and infrastructure markets (circa 83% of FY16 turnover). We have nudged up our FY17 adjusted EBITA and EPS estimates to £35.0m (from £34.8m) and 67.0p (65.5p) respectively - reflecting the positive FY16 out-turn and a slightly lower tax rate (19% vs 20%). 
Our target price has increased to 760p/share, based on an 11.5x FY17 EV/EBITA multiple - representing a slight 4% premium to the industry, which we think is more than justified given Vp's superior business mix, downside resilience and attractive growth prospects.
A$24m (£13.2m) Australian acquisition
Published: Apr 20 2016

Vp plc has today announced the acquisition of TR Pty Ltd for a cash consideration of A$17.4 million payable on completion,  and assumed net debt of A$6.6 million. In recent years Vp has made strong progress based mainly on its operations within the UK.  Today's acquisition is a major step forward in increasing the Group's overseas presence.
TR is engaged in the specialist rental of test & measurement, communications, and audio visual equipment in Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia.  TR is the market leader in technical equipment rental and calibration in Australia.  The business was founded in 1974 and operates from 13 locations with a head office in Melbourne, Australia. In the year to 30 June 2015, revenues were A$33.0 million generating pre tax profits of A$3.0 million.
Vp has built up an excellent track record of finding & successfully integrating (earnings accretive) acquisitions in the last few years. Strategically we think the TR acquisition is an excellent fit with Vp's existing interests, and has been concluded at an attractive price (approx. 6.6x EBITA vs 10.8x peers).  The transaction should be earnings enhancing from day 1, and we have increased our FY17 EBITA and adjusted EPS estimates by 5.5% and 4.5%, to £34.8m and 65.5p respectively. Our Price Target moves up by 3% to 746p/share.
Trading in line with expectations
Published: Mar 01 2016

Yesterday Vp plc announced the acquisition of Higher Access Ltd, (the UK leader in hiring out niche tracked access platforms, operating from two sites in Burnley and Luton) for £4.1 million. The business will become a subsidiary of Vp's UK Forks division. Vp also confirmed that it had "experienced a satisfactory winter period", and that it is on track to deliver full year results (for the year ending 31 March) in line with current market expectations.
Vp has an excellent record in recent years of making very successfull (and earnings enhancing) bolt on acquisitions, which, in almost every case, they had been tracking for a long time prior to purchase.  We anticipate that Higher  Access will continue this trend.
EV/EBITA multiples across the wider equipment rental sector have declined by around 10% since Vp's interims were released on 25th November. We continue to believe that Vp deserves a premium rating, reflecting its predictable earnings, healthy ROCE and operational breath - albeit we have nonetheless conservatively reset our price target from 800p to 725p/share, reflecting the overall sector (and market) derating. 
2015
"Solid progress" in H1 drives PBTA upgrade
Published: Nov 25 2015

Vp plc has today reported a robust H1 performance (for the 6 months to end September), with profit before tax and amortisation up 6% at £17.2 million, EPS up 7% at 35.14p and the Interim Dividend also increased 7% to 5.35p. Very impressively Return on Capital Employed climbed by 1.5% to 16.1% - significantly above Vp's cost of capital and marginally higher than the Board's "through-cycle" target of 15%.
These results were slightly ahead of our expectations, and are in sharp contrast to news from others in the sector since the UK general election, including Speedy Hire, Lavendon and HSS, all of which have warned on subdued trading conditions (and depressed profits) in their primary UK markets over the 2015 summer.
In terms of divisional performance, Vp's star performers were UK Forks, (profits up 25% at £2.9m), driven by good demand from the housebuilding sector; Hire Station (profits up 27% at £6.1m) , with all three elements of the business - Tools, ESS Safeforce and MEP, all contributing to this excellent result; and Torrent Trackside (Rail - profits up from £1.3m to £1.7m), where the acquisition from Balfour Beatty Rail in August 2014 has been successfully integrated and has made a useful contribution. 
For the full year we are nudging up our adjusted PBT (pre amortisation) forecast to £28.4m, which would result in EPS of 58.2p (up 7% year on year).  Our target price stays at 800p, leaving decent upside against the overnight share price of 730p.   
'Performing well ' as rivals stumble
Published: Jul 22 2015

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas.
What should investors do as volatility picks up? Rather than take exposure to economic and political uncertainties, we would prefer to stick with quality stocks that are generating high returns on investment and benefiting from long-term tailwinds. Such as Vp, which last year posted a 29.7% rise in adjusted EPS to 54.4p and a 16.2% RO(adj)CE. Indeed, despite some of its contemporaries recently releasing profit warnings, Vp said yesterday that it had made a "solid start" to FY16.
Chairman Jeremy Pilkington adding the "Group's key markets are generally performing well, with construction and housebuilding remaining positive''.  Naturally Bukom's oil/gas interests have been affected by the lower crude price, yet overall results are still ticking along nicely - thus illustrating once again the resilience of the Group's business model.
We make no change to our 800p/share target price or financial forecasts, and the stock at 770p is still trading at a discount to the equipment rental sector on 12.4x adjusted EBITA and 13.4x PER.
Record Breaking Year
Published: Jun 03 2015

Despite numerous upgrades during the past year, Vp plc has come in with results (for the year to March 2015) comfortably ahead of expectations. Adjusted EPS rose by 30% to 54.4p, following increases in the 2 previous years of 15% and 18% respectively. Vp's return on average capital employed jumped from 13.5% to a very impressive 16.2% in 2014/15. 
The Group has reported a record breaking year with significant progress made across all key metrics including profits, revenue, earnings per share and dividends.  It confirmed that the economic environment in both the UK and globally is significantly more positive than for some time and all its business divisions are identifying significant growth and investment opportunities for the near and long term future. Vp's Chairman went on to say "We see the next few years as offering great opportunities for the Group assisted by the unambiguous General Election result.  We are able and determined to take the fullest possible advantage of these opportunities".
We have (again) increased our 2015/16 PBT & EPS forecasts, and introduced forecasts for the year to March 2017. 
We now forecast adjusted EPS of 57.3p followed by 60.5p for the next 2 forecast years, and full year dividends of 17.4p followed by 18.3p. As a result of these changes, our Target Price increases to 800p per share. The shares remain very modestly rated against their broader peer group. 
 
FY15 PBTA forecast to climb 30% year-on-year
Published: Feb 24 2015

In its IMS this morning, Vp plc said "The Group has continued to trade well through the winter period assisted by relatively mild weather and customer demand has picked up steadily through the early part of 2015. The construction, housebuilding and infrastructure sectors remain strong, though we do anticipate a limited impact on our oil and gas related activities from the recent oil price reduction. The business is trading well, and with a momentum that leads the Board to believe that the Group will deliver results ahead of current market expectations for the year ended 31 March 2015".
As a result we are increasing our numbers (again), and are now forecasting  adjusted PBT (pre amortisation) for the year to March 2015 of £26 million, (against £20.05m in the previous financial year), followed by £27.5 million in the year to March 2016. Our new EPS forecasts for these 2 years are 52p (to 31/3/15) followed by 55.7p (to 31/3/16).
As shown in our note, Vp shares are still very modestly rated against its peer group. On the back of these forecast increases we have raised our share price target from 725p to 775p.
2014
Outstanding first half performance
Published: Nov 26 2014

Vp plc has produced an outstanding set of Interim results this morning, showing adjusted PBTA up 27% at £16.2m, EPS up 23% at 32.8p and the Interim dividend up 39% at 5p. The big increase in the Interim dividend  is partly to address the historic differential between Interim and Final dividends,  but also to reflect the excellent set of results.

The company has reported that Housebuilding continued to be buoyant, and that they also saw sustained improvement in the general construction market. Reflecting this, Vp's Hire Station division produced interim profits up 78% at £4.8m, and UK Forks profits rose 54% to £2.3m.

As a result of a very strong H1, and a positive outlook statement, we are raising our forecasts for the 5th time in the last 6 months. We now forecast PBTA to rise 21% to £24.2m in the year to March 2015,  and EPS to increase by over 15% to 48.4p. Our full year dividend forecast is now 16p, up 14% on 2013/14's 14p.

As a result of these increases, we raise our target price to 725p per share (previously 700p). Vp's shares still look very good value relative to their peer group.

Continued strong momentum
Published: Sep 29 2014

Vp plc today issued another positive trading update, this time for its first half (6 months to end Sept 2014), in which it said that "it continued to experience positive trading conditions in the markets which it serves, and that the gradual but sustained recovery in the general construction and housebuilding markets, in particular, continues to be supportive to the Group's activities. As such, the Board anticipate that the Group will deliver results for the year ended 31 March 2015 ahead of market expectations".  
As a result we have nudged up our adjusted FY15 and FY16 PBT estimates by +2.5% to £23.3m and £24.8m respectively, and we are hopeful we might upgrade still further as the year progresses, driven by a favourable macro-economic backdrop and management's knack of exceeding expectations. Today's forecast upgrades are our fourth in the last 4 months.
On the back of our increased forecasts, we move our target price up from 687p to 700p/share. Given that the stock (at 612p) trades on a forward PER of 13.1x, compared to a sector average of 16.8x, we think the share price softness this month could prove a buying opportunity. 
£5.5m tuck-in acquisition
Published: Jul 30 2014

Following better than expected full year results in early June, and a very positive AGM statement a week ago, Vp plc yesterday announced the acquisition of the trackside plant and equipment rental activity of Balfour Beatty Rail Ltd , for a cash consideration of £5.5 million.

The business will be integrated into Torrent Trackside, Vp's successful specialist rail business. The acquisition includes a 5 year framework agreement for the hire of trackside plant and equipment to Balfour Beatty Rail across the UK.

Vp has a history of successful "bolt on" acquisitions in recent years, and this looks like another such deal. Our current fair value is 687p per share.

In upbeat mood
Published: Jul 22 2014

Vp's AGM statement, yesterday,  was very positive, stating that "the excellent business momentum with which we ended the previous financial year has carried forward into this year. The Group enjoyed a strong Q1, the market background remains positive and with current trading ahead of expectations, the Group is well positioned to deliver further good progress this year."
As a result we have revisited our numbers, which were raised as recently as the 5th of June, and increased our adjusted PBTA FY15 forecast by a further 6%  to £22.5m. 
On a forward  PER of only 14.6x, compared to a sector average of 16.7x, the rating still looks modest. As a result of our Profit & EPS forecast increases our target price moves up from 676p to 725p per share. 
Knocks the ball out of the park
Published: Jun 04 2014

Vp is a specialist rental business providing equipment and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas.
Results for the year ended March 2014 are well ahead of consensus estimates, reflecting a strong performance across all six divisions and a very positive end to the financial year. Full year  EPS rose by 18% to 42p, and the full year dividend was increased by 14.3% to 14p.
 
The company says it has started the 2014/15 financial year with "excellent momentum" and that "all divisions are identifying significant opportunities for growth". Accordingly we have upgraded our FY15 turnover estimate (by 5.7%) to £193.6m, and our EPS estimate (by 6.4%) to 43.0p. 
As a result of the upgrades we have lifted out target price to 676p/share (previously 635p). The shares trade at an 11% discount to the equipment rental sector, despite offering the highest yield of 2.2%. 
On track for solid year
Published: Feb 17 2014

Vp is a specialist rental business providing products and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas.
A rebound in UK house-building and ongoing demand in infrastructure has helped VP deliver robust y-o-y revenue growth in Q3. Encouragingly, the construction industry is also showing early signs of improvement, which chimes with last week's report from the Construction Products Association.
With regards to Vp's financials, we maintain our FY14 PBT forecast of £18.9m, but have upgraded our share price target from 580p to 635p/share. This is based on a 14x EV/EBITA FY15 multiple, which is in line with the broader rental sector. 
2013
Riding UK housing and infrastructure boom
Published: Nov 25 2013

Vp plc is a specialist rental business providing products and services to a wide range of markets including civil engineering, rail, oil and gas exploration, construction, outdoor events and industry, primarily within the UK, but also overseas.  
Vp today produced an excellent set of H1 results, with adjusted PBT up 17%, EPS up 18% and the Interim Dividend up 10.8% to 3.6p. The numbers were all well ahead of expectations.
The best performing divisions,  benefiting from a stronger performance in the UK infrastructure and residential property sectors were: Hire Station, UK Forks and Groundforce.
For the full year (to March '14) we have increased our Revenue, PBT, EPS and Dividend forecasts, and raised our Target Price to 580p / share. The shares still trade on nearly a 20% discount to their peer group, so continue to look attractive.
Building on rock solid foundations
Published: Oct 22 2013

When stocks rise, there is sometimes a temptation to take profits. However, we think this would be premature in the case of plant hire specialist Vp - up 43% in past 12 months. There is a new lease of life in equipment rental thanks to the UK's economic revival and Vp's ongoing tight cost control. In fact the company's Return On (Average) Capital Employed (ROCE) is heading north - rising from 12.3% to 13.3% since 2011.
At 506p the shares trade on a forward PER of 13.6x, representing a 14% discount to the sector, despite offering the highest yield at 2.5%. On a DCF basis, our target price has been set at 568p/share, equivalent to an undemanding 6.4x FY14 EV/EBITDA.